Stock Market Performance by President Chart – Comprehensive Analysis & Data (1929–2025)

When investors and commentators look back over U.S. financial history, one of the most frequently cited topics is the performance of the stock market under different presidential administrations. The question of how much the person in the White House influences markets is both popular and contentious. By studying the stock market performance by president chart, we gain a visual and data-based way to compare returns under each administration, identify patterns, and ask the right questions about causality.

Why It Matters

The idea of linking the stock market to presidential terms appeals for several reasons:

• The U.S. President is a highly visible symbol of policy, economy and direction—though actual control is limited.

• Investors often ask: “If X candidate wins (or has won), will stocks rise or fall?”

• Media coverage regularly highlights “best and worst markets under President Y”. For example, a look at the chart of the S&P 500 or Dow Jones Industrial Average under each administration gives quick sound-bite answers.

• While the president is not the only driver, analyzing performance by term helps place policy, macro-economics and market psychology in context.

• For long-term investors, understanding that “who is president” is only one variable helps avoid over-focusing on election-year noise.

In short: the stock market performance by president chart is as much a conversation starter as a definitive guide. But with proper caveats and context, it offers useful insight.

What the Charts Show & Data Sources

Before diving into the numbers, it’s important to understand what is shown in charts and how the data is collected.

Data sources

Key sources for this topic include:

• MacroTrends: provides interactive charts of the Dow Jones average by presidential term.

• Darrow Wealth Management blog: shows S&P 500 returns by president and commentary.

• Dimensional Fund Advisors / other academic studies: discuss the degree to which presidents affect markets.

• Secondary sources compile large tables of “best and worst president markets” (e.g., Kiplinger).

What the chart depicts

Typically, a “stock market performance by president chart” will show for each presidential term:

• The start date of the term (or date of inauguration)

• The end date of that term (or departure from office)

• The percentage change in a major index (e.g., S&P 500 or Dow) over that full term

• Sometimes an annualized return figure (i.e., average return per year during that term)

• Often plotted as bars or lines in chronological order for comparison

Key caveats and features

• Most charts show price only returns (excluding dividends) unless otherwise noted. Example: Kiplinger notes that their rankings use price only.

• Some data is not adjusted for inflation—so returns may look inflated in high inflation periods.

• The president’s term is just one of many drivers—monetary policy, global shocks, business cycles matter. For example, a Dimensional Fund Advisors article emphasizes that markets have “a consistent upward march” across terms, and the president is only one factor.

• Chart comparisons may favour modern periods (because of more complete data, larger market capitalization, and structural changes).

• The start point matters: if the index is at a trough (e.g., in a recession) the subsequent rise will be large and may reflect recovery more than the new administration.

Understanding these caveats helps interpret the chart more sensibly.

Visual example

Here is a simplified representation (not actual data) of what the chart might look like:

When arranged as bars, you can visually scan which terms saw highest or lowest returns.

Key Findings from Historical Terms

When we survey the historical data, some patterns and standout cases emerge. Below are key observations drawn from multiple sources.

Standout terms

• The term of Bill Clinton (1993-2001) stands out as one of the strongest for market returns in modern history. According to one article, his tenure produced some of the best stock market performance.

• The terms of George W. Bush include some of the weakest market performances in recent memory, impacted by the tech-bubble crash and 2008 financial crisis.

• The term of Barack Obama included a powerful recovery from recession and thus strong returns in the S&P 500.

• While some analyses show markets perform better under Democratic presidents than Republican ones, caution is required—many other factors are involved. For example, Wikipedia’s summary of economic performance by presidential party notes higher average stock market returns under Democrats from 1945 to 2020.

Patterns and drivers

From studies and articles, key patterns include:

• Markets perform better when they start from a trough or after a major crash (recovery phases) rather than simply because of a president’s policies.

• Political cycles matter somewhat: for election years, the market tends to show moderate returns due to uncertainty.

• The broader macro environment (monetary policy, interest rates, global growth) plays a larger role than the identity of the president. Dimensional Fund Advisors emphasises this.

The “president effect” – how big is it?

Several studies ask: How much can a president influence the stock market?

• The Dimensional Fund Advisors article indicates that while there is some correlation, causation is weak—economics, business cycle, global events tend to dominate.

• The Wikipedia page summarising economic performance notes that the S&P 500 annual return averaged 8.35% under Democrats vs 2.70% under Republicans (in one study). Yet the difference is driven by many confounding factors.

In other words: yes, there is variation between terms, but attributing that variation solely or even primarily to the president would be misleading. A smart investor uses the chart for context, not prediction.

Table: Sample Stock Market Returns by President

Below is a sample table featuring major U.S. presidents in modern times and summarising stock market returns associated with their terms. Note: different studies use different indices, date-ranges, and return calculations, so numbers should be taken as indicative rather than exact.

*Indices and calculations vary by source. Many charts show price only and exclude dividends or inflation.

This table is not exhaustive, but highlights how returns differ substantially across terms. The full chart would list all presidents since the data was available (e.g., since early 20th century or since S&P inception).

Interpreting the Chart: What It Does and Doesn’t Show

When you look at a “stock market performance by president chart”, here are key interpretation points:

What it does show

• A historical view of stock market returns associated with presidential terms.

• Comparison across administrations in the same index (normalized for term length).

• A way to see strong vs weak periods in market history.

• A prompt for deeper investigation (why did this term see strong/weak returns?).

What it doesn’t show

• That the President alone caused the returns (or losses). Causality is far more complex.

• That future performance under a given president or party can be predicted reliably.

• That short-term performance (first 100 days, election days) necessarily reflect the entire term.

• Adjustments for inflation, dividends, or risk in many charts.

Mistakes to avoid

• Using the chart to pick a political party for investing. Instead, use it to understand context.

• Ignoring the underlying economic or global events. For example, the 2008 crisis occurred under Bush—this wasn’t simply his policy failing.

• Focusing only on one index (e.g., Dow) when there may be multiple ways to measure returns.

• Comparing non-equivalent time spans (partial terms, resignations, unusual durations).

By interpreting the chart carefully and with these caveats in mind, investors and readers can make wiser judgments.

Drivers of Stock Market Performance Beyond the Presidency

To truly understand why the market did what it did under a given administration, we need to look at key drivers that often matter more than who is president.

1. Monetary Policy & Interest Rates

The central bank (in the U.S., the Federal Reserve) plays a major role in determining interest rates, liquidity and risk taking. Lower interest rates generally support higher equity valuations; higher rates impose pressure. Many presidents inherit policy settings that continue for years.

2. Business Cycle & Recessions

Markets are heavily influenced by expansions and contractions. If a president inherits a recession (or a boom), the market’s direction may reflect recovery (or overvaluation) rather than purely policy.

3. Corporate Earnings & Innovation

Stock markets ultimately depend on corporate profits, business innovation and sectoral shifts. For example, the large gains under Clinton’s term were partly driven by the tech/Internet boom.

4. Global Events & Shocks

Events like wars, pandemics, financial crises or commodity shocks often overshadow domestic policy. Example: the tech bust of early 2000s and the 2008 crisis both fell under Bush’s presidency and severely impacted equity returns.

5. Investor Sentiment & Valuations

Sometimes markets move because of sentiment—fear or greed—not only fundamentals. Political uncertainty, election outcomes and policy surprises can affect sentiment. For example, research shows political uncertainty influences stock returns around election times.

6. Regulatory & Tax Policy

While important, these policies typically operate on longer timelines and through indirect channels. For example, corporate tax cuts may boost earnings but often are incorporated ahead of time via expectations.

7. The Pre-Term Starting Point

If the market is already high (or low) at the moment a term begins, the “return” might look worse (or better) simply due to starting point. Many charts thus caution about data interpretation.

In summary: the president is part of the circle of influences but rarely the sole or even dominant one.

Mythbusters: Common Misconceptions

Here are some widely held beliefs and the truth behind them when it comes to presidential market performance.

Myth 1: “If my preferred candidate wins, stocks will rise.”

Reality: The market is forward-looking and already incorporates expectations about policy. A victory might reduce uncertainty, but actual returns will still depend on macro-economics, earnings and global conditions.

Myth 2: “Republican presidents always produce better stock market returns because they favour business.”

Reality: Some data show higher average returns under Democratic presidents (for example, between 1945-2020 the S&P 500 annual return averaged 11.2% under Democrats vs 6.9% under Republicans in one study). But this is not evidence of causation and there are many exceptions.

Myth 3: “The first 100 days of a presidency determine the market outcome.”

Reality: The first 100 days may set tone, but the full term (and what happens before, during & after) matters far more. Example: markets may already be in a boom or bust phase that predates the president.

Myth 4: “If the stock market does well, the president is doing a good job for the economy.”

Reality: Stock market is only part of the economy. It may benefit some, but not necessarily reflect wages, employment, inequality or household income. A strong stock market does not guarantee broad-based economic health.

Myth 5: “If a president starts with a market crash, the rest of the term must be bad.”

Reality: Some terms begin in downturn and recover strongly (e.g., Obama’s term began amid the Great Recession and ended with strong market gains) .

Recognizing these myths helps investors and readers avoid over-simple conclusions.

Practical Implications for Investors

How should an investor use the stock market performance by president chart? Here are some suggestions.

Focus on being invested, not timing

Studies confirm that “time in the market beats timing the market.” Regardless of who is president, remaining invested across cycles tends to produce better returns than trying to pick winners based on elections alone.

Use elections as context, not driver

Elections may raise volatility (due to uncertainty) but the structural drivers listed earlier matter far more. So rather than shifting asset allocation solely because of a presidential change, investors should consider fundamentals, valuations and risk tolerance.

Maintain diversification

Whether the president is Democrat or Republican, or whether returns are historically higher under one party than another, diversification helps manage risk from unforeseen shocks and political surprises.

Beware of over-reacting to charts

While the chart is visually appealing, it is retrospective. Past performance doesn’t guarantee future results. The starting economic conditions, global environment and structural changes may differ significantly for future terms than past.

Use data for perspective

The chart can provide historical perspective (“which administration had the highest returns?”, “how did markets perform after recessions?”) and raise quality questions (“why did this term underperform?”). But it should not be the sole basis for investment decisions.

FAQs – Frequently Asked Questions

Below are common questions about the topic of “stock market performance by president chart” with concise, informative answers.

Q1. What does “stock market performance by president” mean?
A1. It refers to measuring how the major stock market index (commonly the S&P 500 or Dow Jones) has performed during the term (years) of each U.S. president. The result is often shown as a percentage gain or loss over the term and represented in a chart.

Q2. Which index is used for these charts?
A2. It varies. Some charts use the Dow Jones Industrial Average, others use the S&P 500. Some include price only, others include dividends. Always check the source and methodology.

Q3. Does a higher percentage mean the president did a better job?
A3. Not necessarily. The stock market is influenced by many factors outside the president’s direct control (monetary policy, business cycle, global events, etc.). A higher return may reflect favourable starting conditions or external factors rather than presidential action.

Q4. Is the data adjusted for inflation or dividends?
A4. Often the headline charts are not adjusted for inflation and may exclude dividends (price only). Some studies list this limitation. For example, the Kiplinger article states their ranking uses price only.

Q5. Has the stock market historically done better under one political party?
A5. Some data suggest higher average returns under Democratic presidents vs Republican ones (for example the Wikipedia summary cites ~11.2% vs ~6.9% from 1945-2020) . But this is a statistical historical observation, not a predictive rule, and many confounding factors exist.

Q6. Should I invest differently if a certain party wins the next election?
A6. The best practice is to focus on long-term goals, diversification and fundamentals rather than election outcomes alone. While elections raise uncertainty, structural factors matter far more.

Q7. Does the stock market react immediately when a new president takes office?
A7. There may be short-term reactions (on inauguration day or shortly after) due to policy expectations or uncertainty. However, the market’s full term performance is mostly shaped by deeper trends rather than immediate action. For example, Reuters reported that on average the S&P 500 declined slightly on inauguration days historically.

Q8. How far back does the data go?
A8. It depends on the source. Some charts go back to early 20th century for the Dow; others start with the S&P 500 data from 1950s or 1960s. When comparing, assess the exact time span and index used.

Q9. Can this chart predict future stock market performance?
A9. No. The chart is retrospective. It describes what has happened, not what will happen. Investors should not assume that a certain party or president will guarantee strong returns.

Q10. Where can I view updated charts?
A10. Some reliable sources include MacroTrends (for Dow by president) , Darrow Wealth blog (for S&P by president), and academic/industry studies like Dimensional Fund Advisors.

Additional Considerations & Advanced Topics

Presidential Cycle & Market Timing

Beyond full-term charts, some investors look at the “presidential cycle” or “year within term” effect—such as the idea that the third year of a four-year term is historically favourable. For example, an AP News piece noted that the third year of the presidential cycle has averaged ~15.9% return for the S&P 500 since 1945.
However, these rules are generalizations and not guaranteed.

Sectoral Impacts

Different sectors of the market may respond differently depending on the administration’s policy orientation (e.g., energy, defence, tech, healthcare). While a broad market index may rise, some sectors might underperform. The study “The Price of Political Uncertainty” highlights this sector-specific variation.

Starting Point Bias

As noted earlier, if a president begins his term just after a market trough, the subsequent recovery may inflate the return associated with that president. Conversely, if the term begins at a cyclical peak, the returns may appear weaker. Thus when comparing, it’s important to note economic context.

Risk-Adjusted Returns

Most simple tables show nominal returns (e.g., +15%). But risk-adjusted returns (accounting for volatility, drawdowns) may tell a different story. A high return achieved after a large drawdown may have higher risk.

Inflation Adjustment

Adjusting for inflation gives “real returns” which often reduce the difference among presidents. Some earlier eras experienced higher nominal returns due to higher inflation rather than better real gains.

Conclusion

The “stock market performance by president chart” is a useful and visually engaging tool for historical perspective—but should be used with wisdom. Here are the key takeaways:

• Market returns vary substantially across presidential terms—but much of the variation is driven by economic, global and monetary factors rather than the identity of the president alone.

• Some presidencies (e.g., Clinton, Obama) coincide with strong returns; others (e.g., George W. Bush) coincide with weaker returns—but correlation is not causation.

• High returns under a president may reflect an already favourable environment (e.g., recovery, innovation boom), and low returns may reflect inherited problems (e.g, financial crises).

• Investors should avoid making investment decisions solely based on presidential election outcomes or party affiliation. Focus on fundamentals, diversification and long-term time in market.

• The chart works best as a tool for context, reflection and education—not as a predictive formula.

In summary: yes, it is interesting to see how the market performed under each U.S. president. But the real value lies in understanding why those performance differences occurred—not simply which president had the highest bar on the chart.